Israel is the strongest country in the region
– but it has a dangerous tendency | Tamir Heiman
As the new year unfolds, and despite the external and internal challenges, the State of Israel is the strongest country in the region, a wonder of innovation and the realization of dreams. Even in difficult and complex times, it is worth remembering that we, the State of Israel and the people of Israel, always succeed against all odds. Our history is full of such episodes. Israel’s strength enables it to lead and take control of its destiny and future.
Israel is the strongest country in the region
But there is one condition, the threat must be clear and tangible. In other words, in order for Israel to successfully deal with threats, they must be: immediate and urgent, visible and clear. Unfortunately, five of the main challenges to Israel’s national security have one common denominator – they all have an intangible component.Immediate and urgent threats are made.The threats to Israel’s national security in the coming year consist mostly of a tangible short-term challenge, which seems urgent and critical, and a long-term challenge – vague, vague, and sometimes labeled as expert demagoguery, but it is actually the more important and dangerous one.
Another interesting principle is that the more effective the solution to the short-term problem, the more we “numb” our survival instinct in the face of the long-term challenge. In so doing, we postpone preparations for it. The short-term challenges require tactical excellence, and that’s what we’re good at. And the long-term challenges require critical thinking and long-term planning, and that’s where we’re less good.
In this state of affairs, our success is often our disaster. Our tactical skill may lead us to miss all strategic opportunities.Hezbollah is the exception, so the northern sector is not included in this list. There the challenge is tangible, and the preparations are accordingly. In the northern sector, we are the initiators; the danger of war in this arena depends to a large extent on us. How we respond to provocations, and how we manage tensions and deterrence equations, will determine the volatility and risk of unplanned escalation.
This is important, but this is the area of tactical thinking in which we are quite good, the soul-searching of the holidays requires us to discuss the long-term strategic thinking.The challenge is tangible, the preparations accordingly.The short-term Iranian challenge is regional entrenchment and Iranian terrorism. The network of Shiite militias deployed in a rainbow around Israel is a serious tactical challenge.
Although this is a security risk, its essence is at the tactical level. We have a good solution against it – a strong defense and an offensive campaign in routine times. This is a campaign that, if we succeed in updating and perfecting, will achieve its objectives by weakening the challenge and maintaining it only as a military tactical challenge.A terrifying move without paying the price.The long-term challenge is projecting Iranian nuclear deterrence on the verge of nuclear capability.
In other words, Iran manages to intimidate the West without paying the price for violating international law. In the long run, this could lead to a nuclear Iran and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. And those who are familiar with the decision-making process in Iran and the tension and hostility between the countries of the Middle East understand that this will be a much less secure world.In the face of the long-term challenge, we currently have no answer.
The only response was a nuclear agreement, a response against which we fought “very successfully” – after defeating it, it was this “success” that led to Iran being a threshold state whose only thing preventing it from achieving nuclear capability is its will. And as everyone knows, “desires change overnight.The short-term Palestinian challenge is the wave of violence we have been experiencing over the past year.
in conclusion Israel is the strongest country in the region
Had it not been for the successful operational activity of our forces, it is reasonable to assume that we would have already defined this reality as a third intifada. This wave is driven by a generation of violent young Palestinians who do not identify with any of the veteran organizations: they unite locally as street and neighborhood gangs, and receive impressive names such as “The Lion’s Den.” This murky wave does not encounter the breakwater of the Palestinian Authority: it suffers from chronic weakness, mistreatment and lack of motivation to fight the terror that threatens Israelis.
If the PA collapses, we will find ourselves in a grave reality.In the face of this murky wave, we have sufficient intelligence and operational capabilities. We could it in the past and we can it now. This is a serious tactical problem with strategic implications (if we add the succession challenge the day after Abbas), but it is not the most critical problem.
